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Asteptam sa iasa si McKinsey cu ceva de profunzime. Si a iesit cu un articol smart: The new normal. Si nu oricum, ci prin seful lor cel mare, Ian Davis. 

O mare parte din lucruri le-am mai discutat pe aici. Ceea ce, nu-i asa, e o mandrie 😉 

– “Obviously, there will be significantly less financial leverage in the system. Business models that rely on high leverage will suffer reduced returns. Companies that boost returns to equity the old fashioned way—through real productivity gains—will be rewarded.“… de bun simt.

– “Another defining feature of the new normal will be an expanded role for government.“… oops!

– “While the financial-services industry will be most directly affected, the impact of government’s increased role will be widespread: there is a risk of a new era of financial protectionism. A good outcome of the crisis would be greater global financial coordination and transparency. A bad outcome would be protectionist policies that make it harder for companies to move capital to the most productive places and that dampen economic growth, particularly in the developing world. Companies need to prepare for such an eventuality—even as they work to avert it” … asta e o problema pentru tari ca Romania.

– “Through it all, technological innovation will continue, and the value of increasing human knowledge will remain undiminished. For talented contrarians and technologists, the next few years may prove especially fruitful as investors looking for high-risk, high-reward opportunities shift their attention from financial engineering to genetic engineering, software, and clean energy” … exact asta o sa fac!

– “The big unknown is whether the temptation to blame Western-style capitalism for current troubles will lead to backlash and self-destructive policies. If this can be avoided, the world’s economic center of gravity will continue to shift eastward.“… geana pe Asia mica si aia mare!

– “This much is certain: when we finally enter into the post-crisis period, the business and economic context will not have returned to its pre-crisis state. Executives preparing their organizations to succeed in the new normal must focus on what has changed and what remains basically the same for their customers, companies, and industries. The result will be an environment that, while different from the past, is no less rich in possibilities for those who are prepared” … BANG!

Si nu ne-a spus cum va arata noul normal. Asta va trebui sa gandim singuri.

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2 thoughts on “Noul normal

  1. si nu in ultimul rand corporatii wide spread incearca echilibrarea raportului asia – europa cu intoarcerea la furnizorul est european (si nord african?:) cineva si-a dat seama ca este cam cu dus intors sa pui atatea in mana unei singure chine:), vorbesc de europene, americanii ma intereseaza prea putin unde mai migreaza pentru forta de munca
    unde ar fi de fapt pericolul? la cine s-a fript cu ciorba nu se mai uita nici la iaurt? ca nu inteleg.:(

  2. in intelegerea mea, este vorba de modelul economic, notoriul de acum: socialism de tip liber… care, for better or worse, pare sa se manifeste in acest moment in toata lumea capitalista sadea, incepand cu US.

    nu cred ca autorul face referire stricta la super-leverage-ul pe China din ultimul deceniu. cu toate ca, practic, atat China cat si India ofera inca capacitate de productie enorma, atat prin prisma spatiului fizic (care e important pentru ideea de economie de scara), cat si prin prisma costurilor cu resursele, mai ales cele cu forta de munca.

    ideea mai veche “estul va cuceri vestul” pare contur. doar ca nu ad literam, ci pe fond de dezvoltare.

    e exact cum spune el: shift! India, spre exemplu, are 3 reprezentanti in top 10 forbes… deci avutia/ puterea se concentreaza acolo… si, colac peste pupaza, tot in est e si Rusia.

    resursele, toate, sunt la ei. asta inteleg eu.

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